CITIC Securities also expected policy tightening force is expected to slow, but slow down the time in second half of 2011. “The second half, the intensity of monetary policy tightening will slow, fiscal policy will increase the expansion force (column) degree.” CITIC Securities chief economist jianfang think.
With the continued high inflation expectations, the market concerned about the tightening trend, industry experts said that despite the pre-tightening effect is gradually revealed, but monetary policy will continue in the second quarter, tight. CITIC Securities believes that the current tight monetary policy is difficult to see signs of relaxation, the entire second quarter, is expected to control inflation and protect the livelihood of the policy will not change the tone. Soochow Securities, said Huang Lin, deputy director of the Institute, on the one hand, rising prices of cyclical factors and structural factors still exist, or in the second quarter CPI hit a year high in June; the other hand, funds due in April 900 billion yuan or so, so the central bank will control the price as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control in the context of the second quarter or reproduction of tightening, interest rates or raising the deposit reserve ratio are likely.
So, the next decade, the transformation of China economic difficulties decade is the decade of contradictions in Chinese society, the ruling party must promote social change for decades. In short, the next decade, is carefully decade.
There are two reasons, one is continuous deposit reserve ratio by the lagged effects of the central counting the other hand, taking into account the amount due will be greatly reduced later in May.
CICC chose the middle road between the two factions. It said “The government will maintain the current policy of the most severe tone,” but pointed out that if inflation is not out of control and management of the gradual decline of inflation, policy implementation will be soft, control rhythm will slow down.
but asked whether the establishment of nuclear mechanism, or to strengthen the core checks, to make a real difference, the key is working to increase the responsibility of the sponsor. If the work does not increase the responsibility of the sponsor or the sponsor institutions and sponsor representatives need to take responsibility for the sponsorship, or just take a very limited responsibility, then asked the nucleation mechanism and the kernel checks are just a formality, the sponsor does not help the quality of work improvement, not to play for the IPO escort role.
Analysts generally believe that the current situation of ample liquidity in the market to reproduce the short-term strength of monetary policy will not slow down a large extent, but to raise the intensity of future policy on economic growth, structural adjustment and the balance of inflation control. Huang Lin also believes that the slowdown in the second half as inflationary pressures, and the manifestation of the cumulative effect of regulation, regulators will be based on the actual situation on the policy adjustment. He Zhicheng, senior analyst at the Agricultural Bank that, if inflation pressures rise further, the central bank will further tighten the money supply, is likely to raise the deposit reserve ratio. The further tightening of money supply will lead to China stock market correction. “Of course, there is also another possibility that the March CPI growth at 5.1% of control, and if so, large cap stocks will appear wheeled market.” He Zhicheng said.
Author: Doctor of Economics, China Business Times deputy editor Liu Shan
“external” in the attack, the first quarter, the Shanghai Composite Index edged up 2.64%, in the eyes of the market performance of many is still strong. However, on domestic monetary policy and tight fiscal policy continue to market has always been lingering concerns about the haze.
(c) the new shares break people uneven
but we still have the stock market, celebrities firmly do not believe it would be a bull market, they have never seen that side of a country to raise interest rates while raising the reserve ratio side of the bull market. China nineties up to 10% -24% interest rates, stock market hovering at around 500-700 points. In addition, if more money, why speculation the bank shares, the SME board, the GEM crash? Why one week break three listed four new shares. (These shares are hundreds of organizations bidding out, often at below-market 30% of the ah!) New shares will break the bull market?
Of course, there are more radical Securities analyst raised a “million-point theory” and a securities firm has made a “golden years” point of view. For the former, basically correct nonsense, it like people will eventually die, like the Chinese stock market in the years to reach a “million points” is inevitable, but the five years I am afraid not. The next ten years China economy is not “golden years”, but the hardships of transition years. As early as 2006, when the arrival of that wave bull market, some analysts proposed a “golden years”, when I wrote that comment, which basically flicker shareholders shit. Because China economy has to restructure, while structural adjustment and growth mode transformation, to go through a painful process, and this process is not smooth, and can not maintain the previous high economic growth.
from the capital point of view, monetary policy tightening is inevitable. Although the National Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index CPI to adjust the weights in January and February CPI was below 5%, but still not optimistic about the future price movements. In this regard because agricultural prices will remain high in the autumn, while CPI rent increases will raise the level, if coupled with Japan reconstruction could lead to commodity prices, China annual price level are in high pressure, thus central bank can ease monetary policy. So, this year the financial side is still tight. If money is tight surface, then the blue chips can not be fully up, it can not be a big market.
Instead of consuming too much paper and ink, how to replace the dollar in the international monetary system and reconstruction of the distant subjects with no solution to make a fuss, not to devote more time and energy research, such as macro-prudential supervision, domestic financial deepening reform, foreign exchange reserves management, the RMB exchange rate mechanism, and those for the Chinese capital account liberalization is far more important issues.
the recommendation of the industry, there are two: First, absolute valuations are still lower plate such as banks, real estate, steel, automobiles, etc., the second is to increase the apparel, retail, pharmaceutical, food and tourism consumer species configured to wait for the second quarter of the field of consumer policy and its implementation.
Wu Rui Thrush: another perspective in the first quarter trade deficit
leatherback sea continents: to avoid a false market need to increase compliance costs
sponsor Goldman Sachs forecasts call for a sell-side institutions the highest point of the target – CSI 300 points in the second quarter on 3500, by the end of 4000. The main support for the prediction of A-share listed companies on average earnings growth in 2011 will reach 22.7%.
Zhang bridge is real, he points out the absurdity of the forecast. In fact, the stock market is an ever-changing market, its trends are subject to various political and economic impact of military events, therefore, makes an uncertain stock market is, which is the charm of the stock market.
trade deficit will become a trend perpetuated? I think, with the major countries, such as the European Union, the United States and other developed countries, these economies continues to improve, the future of China overall foreign trade environment will gradually optimized. From the recently published OECD composite leading index country in January (CLI) point of view, continued to show a slight upward trend, suggesting that the pace of economic recovery in developed countries is growing faster. From March the month of data, the export growth of 57.3%, import growth of 46%, the trade deficit began to surplus. Clearly, the surplus will tend to rebound in the second quarter, the trade deficit is a temporary phenomenon, accompanied by long-term trade surplus in China is about.
In fact, better financial predators is to do insider trading can make so much. Buffett The financial predators, really the last financial markets “saints” do? Looking back on 2008, a phone call request Paulson Goldman Sachs Buffett support, made it clear that the Government would attempt to save AIG. Lehman rescue was only 10 billion dollars to save Goldman Sachs takes 50 billion dollars, why he did not save Lehman, Goldman Sachs save? The answer is obvious, and save the AIG, Goldman Sachs naturally breath through the air. This is not what is insider trading? Fair for the average investor do?
CITIC Securities, the latest research report that has been published in January and February data show that the economy has been gradually tightening results show, first quarter GDP growth is expected to 9.2%, industrial production has slowed down. Macro Bohai Securities analyst Du Zheng Zheng also said that from the first quarter of operation, the domestic economy experienced several policy tightening later still maintained a steady growth trend, initially expected in the first quarter GDP growth of 9.3%. Gao Hua Securities has predicted that by 2011 a quarter of GDP growth from the fourth quarter of 2010 from 9.8% to 9.7%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from April, China GDP will announce the four statistical indicators of the chain speed. The chain speed is internationally recognized for effective short-term economic trend analysis tool.
CITIC Securities said on April 11, the Shanghai Composite Index in the second quarter of the reference range for the 2600-3100 point range fluctuations in the gold company will be set at 2900-3200 points.
The two agencies also recommend investors to lighten up in the second quarter.
sound words of truth, perhaps this year will produce a wave of blue chip market. However, I still want to play a big mouth, that point would not bother. Market this year may not be as we wish, it seems quite right for two reasons, if a change in perspective will come to different conclusions. First, the reason why cheap blue-chip market, and the lowest in history, which must be justified, as the “poor man must place the poor,” the same. The reason why banks cheaper real estate prices, in addition to macro-control reasons, it also is that people worry about the quality of bank assets at risk. In addition to the risk of falling house prices, bank debt where there is risk of default. In addition, the central bank continued to raise the deposit reserve ratio, but also reduced the profit margins of commercial banks, while banks are also due to China economic growth slowing overall decline.
interview, experts said, from the already published data, which basically are in the market expected, therefore, for the upcoming macroeconomic data released in March and will not be contrary to market expectations, but high inflation and economic growth conflicts will continue to decline in March to be reflected in the data, the market will lead to differences in the risk of oscillation index. Hong Yuan Securities senior analyst, said teacher for the macro-data high market pullback may be a fuse.
must recognize that the U.S. dollar replaced sterling as the main reserve currency, basically to establish a free and open international financial and economic order, world peace and development has made an indelible contribution. In particular, can not be ignored is that since 1978 China reform and opening to absorb a lot of foreign investment, from a backward country closed quickly degenerated into the world trading power plant and has maintained a record of the fastest growing global economy.
On the one hand, enterprises can be Forced to upgrade. As our dependence on foreign trade as high as 60% or more, once the world economy, there is trouble, it will affect China real economy, especially the first two years after the financial crisis hit once in a century, most provinces appeared in the overall economic decline. For now, because the future inflationary pressures in emerging market countries or to remain high and interest rates and other monetary tightening continues, then China exports still face a number of variables. It is clear, but the local government under the auspices of the Forced enterprises to adjust the industrial structure, upgrade and change from the outside need to boost domestic demand and exports, so as to promote economic growth.
In contrast, in the Jin Zeming really said: “This year, the overall market funds face came loose tight, gradually tightening the trend would continue at least into the third quarter.”
compared domestic institutions more cautious side.
From the perspective of the international economy, Japan nuclear crisis, the Middle East instability and the debt crisis, the world economy are a time bomb, which not only hinder world economic recovery, and at any time lead to short-term volatility in international financial markets. Once the rate hike cycle into Europe, the international hot money will return to developed markets, China power will be weakened market speculation. Therefore, the international factors restricting China stock market in years, and the potential volatility of A shares.
(a) market interest rates while ignoring the rise
Although the market is facing the central bank last week, interest rates and other negative factors, but the market impact of 3000 and tenacious stand firmly on it. “March CPI-breaking ive is expected to have a certain digestion in the market, macro-data oots floor, do not affect the pattern of upward oscillation index.” GF Securities analysts believe that, from the current situation, performance disclosure and the arrival of spring, the peak of construction, will continue to push up the variety of pro-cyclical investor optimism index is expected to further ratchet up. CITIC Securities chief strategist in the military suggested the second quarter of the market investors cautious, due to lower positions. “Return to high inflation makes future space policy maneuvers to reduce the policy focus will inevitably shift the management of inflation expectations, which will make the stock market oscillations trends.”
Could continue the rally on the IPO, the Commission shares was seen frequently break, not only urgent but also do not think proud, that shares significant achievements of the reform. Listing of four new shares last week break three, this week has sent a 80 times price-earnings ratio of 30 million small-cap stocks. Some play more than a decade of new shares of common people, retired workers, teachers, older people have to stop the IPO.
lack of effective control of inflation, curb consumer prices are not sustainable. Round of consumer price rises led by inflation, inflation leading to corporate labor costs, raw material costs rose sharply last year, manufacturing labor costs rose about 30%, raw material prices increased by 30% to 50%, companies rely on internal control has been unable to absorb rising costs factors, there is no final pricing of the downstream end of the price rises of consumer goods companies. Inhibition of consumer prices, and its essence is to allow enterprises to pay for inflation, pay for the rising prices of raw materials, pay for social transformation.
the recommendation in the list of gold companies are concentrated in the cycle of weight plates and plates, but recommended investors “continue to reduce consumption of medicine in the small cap and non-cycle and a higher valuation of the plate.”
Here Analysis of the first to look at what is LIBOR?
“sustained and profitable-than-expected growth is the main driver of rising stock prices, and impressive performance deliver the annual report also provided a better bank stocks time window. “banking analyst at Everbright Securities, said Shen D, for the banks, the performance increase is the last word. Bank in late April release will usher in a quarterly period, the growth rate is expected to bank quarterly results will be more than 30%, this would become bank stocks push higher power. Changsheng Fund companies have also said that the current valuation of the central lower blue chip, small plates, the GEM rose sharply after two years overvalued, large consumer goods industry adjusted valuation is reasonable. The next phase, should choose some of the larger margin of safety stocks to focus investment.
controversial one: When tightening slowdown? since 2011, A-share market has been affected by the test of two interest rates and chaos in the Middle East, Japan, earthquake and other overseas impact of negative events.
optimistic, such as Goldman Sachs, said: “in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, A-share market is facing the most decisive change is aimed at curbing inflation and regulation of real estate and intensive introduction of austerity, the early results in the regulation of cases, the pace is expected to slow down. “
recently read a book on investing, is the deputy head of UBS investment banking China Mr. Zhang Huaqiao written. As an analyst, Zhang bridge the courage to deny himself, he predicted that the market analyst is funny. He said: “On the stock market, the most sensible prediction is that do not know but too many people eager to predict a certain index reached the end of the year or what the point while walking up or down direction of a given prediction itself is wrong. ” Zhang said the bridge in ten years to do analysts never predicted the index point.
(b) some people still bearish outlook
“In Shanghai index above 3200 points we recommend that institutional investors can begin to consider reducing the overall position, cash.” CICC said.
administrative control of the inevitable trade-off price, end-consumer prices were strictly controlled, and important raw material prices according to inflation is not wrong. The central bank hiked interest rates in the next day, April 7, Development and Reform Commission announced the re-adjustment of the price of gasoline and diesel notification, in which gasoline rose 500 yuan per ton, or about 0.37 yuan / liter; diesel rose 400 yuan per ton , about 0.34 yuan / liter. This is the second time this year, the NDRC raised the prices of refined oil, domestic oil prices reaching record highs, commodity prices became a major promoter. There is reason to question why prices of petrochemical giant to Japan-based giant is not up? This is the injustice of Ah Q, the monk was moving, I can not move. Increased sense of unfairness, bad effects on inflation expectations are not under the extreme partiality of paternalism Development and Reform Commission, the market pricing system would completely imbalance.
REVIEW:
“shock” is also found in the CICC and CITIC Securities strategy report in the second quarter, but the two agencies designated a slightly different index of shock interval.
administrative price control outweigh the benefits.
trade deficit is also conducive to correct deformities of the development. Economic growth should be the result of efforts under certain conditions, rather than relying on subjective desires can be achieved, if blindly one-sided pursuit of foreign trade export volume, can only result in the development of dry Ze fishing disaster. From this perspective, trade deficit, to meet a central scientific concept of development advocated. If the local government to a trade deficit as an opportunity to implement sustainable economic development strategy, not only to achieve the “crises” as a “machine”, and even make the healthy development of China economy.
2011 年 04 月 13 日
Why, then, Chinese scholars to the U.S. dollar and U.S. dollar as the core of the international monetary system so they hate it? in large part, this is since 2008 misreading of the global financial crisis, the causes of the crisis comes down to a so-called irrational international monetary system, attributed to the U.S. dollar as the world major reserve currency role.
market completely ignoring the central bank to raise interest rates again, rising for a few days after the Ching Ming Festival. Optimistic and gradually increased the fund and personal, was to see 3100, and some even look at 3300-3400 points, and even suggested that the bull market coming.
optimism and pessimism on the market like a coin has two sides, one armed with foreign institutions often.
Liu Shan: the stock market two Fudge – million points on the leaf and golden years
Tan: ridiculous prices of consumer goods, not the Universal Declaration of first quarter economic data
upcoming A-shares up oscillation pattern can be whether to continue
This is probably for the general public is very deep, or very easy to understand. However, it is easy to understand is that banks and manipulated by changing interest rates, the value of derivative products can help to change their direction to get huge returns. Because of the global over 360 trillion derivatives and corporate bonds, regarded as the benchmark LIBOR interest rate.
Monday and Tuesday, say goodbye to a rebound in Shanghai and Shenzhen finished lower, the upcoming macroeconomic data on the markets affected? stock market rally can go far? reporter interviewed the relevant the industry.
and Buffett Berkshire, but in March 14 to 90 billion U.S. dollars of the purchase price of Lubrizol, the end of March the stock closing price of $ 133.96, a rough estimate, Sokol Earnings per share $ 30, floating profit of nearly 300 million U.S. dollars. Although Sokol actively report these transactions (he does not consider itself is illegal), Buffett is also behind Sokol, said he knew, the practice seems innocuous Sokol, subtext: no big deal.
only one explanation, he did not put Sokol behavior seriously. Punish those who really steal the hook, kleptocrats Hou.
Although the CPI continued high inflation triggered concerns about the market, but for the upcoming first quarter GDP growth rate of the situation, most economists believe that a quarter of GDP growth will continue to slow down slightly, but the slow rate and small, is still relatively strong economic growth.
In fact, asked whether the establishment of nuclear mechanism, or to strengthen the core checks, working with the current sponsor of the sponsor institutions, are necessary. It is not only a perfect system of sponsors, but also useful to improve the quality of work sponsored measures.
More importantly, a lot of money to buy large-cap stocks. Second, speculation is not necessarily money into the stock market. Under government control in turns, prices did not fall into the channel, which is an important factor is to maintain price rising currency has not disappeared. In my opinion, only the basic appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar put in place, basically the same balance of payments, the asset revaluation of the yuan will come times, when house prices or a dramatic correction situation. Before a couple of years, real estate funds will not easily leave the property, otherwise the Government will not limit the introduction of housing and make a purchase. Besides, money is not only to prepare the so-called speculation, and speculation has withdrawn the funds, I am afraid that a large part of the money has bought a house, housing, the Government issued a restriction order, these funds can not be a moment to find the next home. Therefore, said speculative money into the stock market, probably just wishful thinking.
Securities, agreed that A shares are not ascribed to the point of view, in his opinion “the capital markets will continue to maintain Cabinet shock situation.”
Sokol, 54, Buffett is widely regarded as quasi-successor. He claimed the first $ 104 per share, intends to purchase 5 million shares of Lubrizol stock, but buy 2300 shares, that is not worth taking the time to manage a few thousand shares, decided to throw. As for the second time to buy its stock, because he liked Lubrizol, think it worth the long-term hold.
whether a country currency as an international reserve currency, depending on the country overall economic and financial strength of the international financial market participants is the result of voluntary choice and not by currency sovereign will of the government arbitrary decision . Dollar as the main international reserve currency status of the establishment, mainly due to strong U.S. economic size and strength, and well-developed financial markets. It is precisely because the U.S. has a natural appeal, was to choose the Chinese currency pegged to the dollar, the voluntary choice of the vast majority of U.S. dollar assets as official reserves.
two things are also said to be a Buffett himself saying: If you see a cockroach in the kitchen there, and that there is certainly more than one! visible, LIBOR and Buffett event highlights in full the top of the pyramid of capital markets, financial institutions and financial predators hiding in the securities market tricky.
In addition, once again this week of economic data released in March, inflation must be high and disturbing. It is not always up heavy volume, indicating that institutions hesitation.
investor Warren Buffett is not a saint in a variety of “cow” theory, there should be to maintain a calm, step by step, is responsible for their own. Nonsense that the stock market point of those who is not a liar, that is, gamblers, or the force is a port worker.
people want to live in a society where price stability, price stability, but lost if businesses and consumers to pay, the cost of loss of market pricing, will be worth the candle.
There is no doubt that China is the biggest beneficiaries of globalization. If there is no existing international monetary and trading system, ensure that the major national markets more open and free of cross-border capital flows, China reform and opening up development without a favorable international environment, a lack of external conditions to ensure that the key to success.
But for experienced investors, chaotic city, may be able to earn a calm.
While LIBOR fixing case ignited the occasion, Buffett former right-hand man – a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway over the main Xisuokeer, suspicion of insider trading, so Buffett and Sokol will accept the SEC investigation.
or reproduction of the second quarter contraction
appears at CITIC Securities, the market is mainly reflected differences between long and short of it, including financial, real estate and there is much room for investment goods, consumer goods, the rise of style can appear.
upcoming first quarter economic data, the pattern of A-shares can continue to oscillate up
currently working on sponsors punishment of illegal activities, mostly talk, focus, and ordered the business to learn, issue warning letters and the like, The only serious sponsor to suspend acceptance of the sponsor on behalf of Item 3 to 12 months only. On this issue, we must increase the punishment of illegal activities. For example, the listing of such a major fraud of illegal activities, to cancel the sponsor and the sponsor representative of the sponsor eligibility. But also the confiscation of their sponsor fees, sponsor fees in addition to a fine of 1-3 times. If so, I believe the sponsor institutions and sponsor representatives will not abuses of.
during the festival in the world stock markets rose, they believe that interest rates in turn a lot of social capital. Courage speculation so great banking stocks, indicating the lack of funds. Said: Once the bank shares and H shares in Hong Kong flat, the stock market will go up some. Some people believe that: real estate can not be fried, but other things are in the East, West jumped up. Such as gold, silver, rice paper, mahogany furniture, and even fried from the Yixing teapot. Scoop some of the paintings from a few million one hundred million, it was all a monetary phenomenon.
trade deficit occurs, not only to a certain extent, help to reduce international trade disputes, it can relieve the pressure of RMB appreciation. In particular, the restructuring of China foreign trade through increased imports, especially efforts to expand imports from the major surplus countries to adjust. If we can achieve this structural adjustment, the emergence of trade deficit is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, through the promotion of free trade area strategy to promote and accelerate the implementation of measures to facilitate imports, the size of China imports in March last year after breaking one hundred billion U.S. dollars continued to expand, even in March of this year exceeded 15 billion U.S. dollars, reaching record highs.
To put it bluntly, the financial markets has never been a saint, and no gods. Capital entered the market with original sin, every penny permeated with blood and tears. Rivers and lakes, such as Warren Buffett veteran, wily, this time why such a low gutter capsize committed error?
CPI is broken “five”
small holiday last day of the festival central bank unexpectedly hiked interest rates, which can not help but Market participants wonder: Price Index in March may break again, “five”, a sharp increase in inflation expectations. Market participants said, as usual, this data indicates that CPI rose in March to hit a new high, breaking the “Five” or almost a foregone conclusion. At the same time, have been disclosed in the first quarter PPI index and the import and export data show that inflation pressures are still not optimistic, especially with the recent record high international oil prices, the market generally expected March CPI will remain high, and more institutions and analysts expect an increase in CPI in March is likely to exceed last year high of 5.1%. Guotai Junan Li, chief economist Thunder expected March CPI will reach 5.2% in April to July CPI growth will be more than 5%, mainly due to food and non-food prices are facing tremendous pressures.
concern is that the consumer will announce important is the National Federation of not raising their prices, rather than administrative agencies, may be trying to maximize the elimination of the negative impact of administrative price control. Thus, exposing the National Federation of Enterprise maiden called the Council who has become a critical moment the enemy. The civil society organizations, the private enterprise of the identity of her family have been seriously questioned, under the surface by the National Federation of Chamber of Commerce came forward for the industry price discipline, in fact manipulated by the administration to come forward for the National Federation of the administrative control of prices is essentially . No wonder more and more associations to fend for themselves, in accordance with the requirements of a document Ministry of Civil Affairs, under the jurisdiction of the National Federation of 28 national trade associations being separated. These associations cover metallurgy, petrochemical, infrastructure, medicine, real estate, environmental water, textile and garment industry of private enterprises.
in the original financial capital markets, trust is the cornerstone of the credit, market players in the party must trust the other party will fulfill its promise. Example, lenders must trust the lenders have the ability to taste the loan, investors must believe that they can see return on investment. Loss of trust, equal to the lost souls, it is like if Newton three laws are wrong, what is left of modern physics can it? Now LIBOR being manipulated, then the associated $ 360 trillion in derivatives, it all wrong.
to suppress high-priced real estate to purchase, to pay property taxes; issuance of new shares at high prices but was secretly pleased, whether it be in tacit encouragement to the development of higher, preferably below the issue price, small hold- individual investors. That right? This is not to sell at high prices and fertilizer, high prices hurt farmers seed a nature? Know investors in China is the most pathetic. Stock price when released in 1992, rose to 1500 points, 3030 points now, only doubled. However, GDP was 2.69 trillion in 1992, now stands at 43 trillion, an increase of 15 times. Chinese investors can see the overall benefits the real economy in China is much lower than the returns to investors, the situation is very poor. The IPO earnings of listed companies has led to endless, but also a loss to investors here once, rather than to the beneficial shareholders of listed companies, regardless of life and death, heartless? Fact, as far as I know, the vast majority of the shares of listed companies are reluctant to break. Get hold of broken reputation. They prefer to leave some benefit to the primary market, secondary market investors, so that win, in order to establish long-term shareholders of the flesh and blood the size of friendship. Leatherback sea continents: to avoid a false market need to increase compliance costs Sponsor
Another problem is that this year the performance of cyclical stocks underestimate the value of eye-catching, while the small cap and growth stocks were generally weak. Whether this trend will be maintained to the year or even longer, it?
In the financial industry knows, LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate London Interbank Offered Rate) is the world most active interest rate market, but also the global One of the most important financial indicators, such as interest rate futures, swaps and euro and the dollar price, all determined to LIBOR. As London position as a global financial center, LIBOR applies not only to pound, also applies to U.S. dollars, Swiss francs, Japanese yen and Canadian dollars. Before the scandal found that the rate is considered the most truly reflect the financial needs of the market situation.
2011-04-13 16:09:14
net private in a row into the Si Chen: From Buffett
about suspected insider trading price of the administrative control of the internal economy will return to a planned economy age, returned to the ticket buy cheap products in short supply. From the outside is concerned, even if we want to go back has not gone back: in the context of global economic integration, unless the Chinese closed-door policy, or can not avoid the global impact of higher commodity prices, but not from Britain and other countries do not responsible for the impact of loose monetary policy. April 11, OPEC Secretariat announced that the average basket price of crude oils a new high last week, reaching $ 117.39 a barrel, since July 2008, the highest level since.
recently went to Shenzhen to attend a professional meeting, during which the investment community with several CEOs chatted about this year stock market movements, hear the words are basically optimistic. Whether the fund company executives, or brokers Institute, believe that the stock market this year, there will be a good harvest.
Wu Rui Thrush: another perspective in the first quarter trade deficit
Core Tip: appears at CITIC Securities, the market is mainly reflected differences between long and short of it, including financial, real estate and there is much room for investment goods, consumer goods the rise of style can appear.
A shares in the future to determine the different macro-environment, so that foreign bodies in the A-share forecast future ups and downs on his own interpretation.
fundamental technique to curb inflation, control the flood of money first, and second, to establish the right incentives to encourage enterprises to improve efficiency. The former means that severe and clearly raise interest rates, negative interest rates directly change the current situation, which means that the deepening of market reforms in China, doing nothing to minimize the market rentier class.
Indeed, many of today international monetary system there can be faulted, including three serious problems in particular cause for concern. First, the U.S. dollar, euro, Japanese yen, British pound and other high volatility of major currencies for international trade and financial markets has brought greater uncertainty; Second, the major developed economies, macroeconomic policy and the global economy had a large economic impact; Third, the IMF is difficult to effectively monitor the behavior of binding power, very difficult global macroeconomic policy coordination, advance warning was not repeated exchange rate crises, sovereign debt crisis or a banking crisis.
If the first few years of the so-called restructuring or shy, then the international financial crisis, China economic restructuring is inevitable, because to maintain high economic growth in China external environment has changed. In developed markets, the deleveraging process, the international trade volume in the short term is difficult to return to pre-crisis levels, which makes China can not rely on exports to maintain economic growth. In this case, in order to maintain a certain pace of economic growth, China economic growth had to inward transformation, in this process, high-growth era is definitely over. In addition to economic restructuring more difficulties, but also the revaluation factor prices, low-cost growth is no longer possible. From the social point of view, China rapid economic growth has brought a series of deep-seated social conflicts also broke out into focus, therefore, social peril. Management from the national perspective, to provide more employment opportunities to maintain a steady growth, it is a pretty good economy up.
However, despite these shortcomings, the existing international monetary system is better than any system in history, including the gold standard and the British pound to dominate the world monetary order. Since its inception in World War II Bretton Woods system, the end of the current monetary system has gone from a fixed rate to floating exchange rates of evolution, the overall operation of the good, not as some critics accused it, full of holes, a non- useful.
“the central bank open market operations significantly in the first quarter, up 500 billion yuan of net invested capital after, with the central counting after May significantly reduce the amount due, it will shift to neutral or even net return.” CICC said.
Xie Baisan: Most people are still optimistic and master of cold treatment
bullish Goldman Sachs in real estate, coal, building materials, appliances and other industries, recommends investors with low telecommunications, utilities, oil and petrochemicals. (.21. The world. Discipline. By. Economy. Reported. Road)
the first time in six years, despite the deficit, we need to be analyzed and discussed, but did not want to fuss, and no need to despair. If we look at this from another angle to the first quarter trade deficit in six years, not only of “dangerous” to “machine”, more importantly, also to raise the overall quality of China economy the best chance.
11 o lock every morning London time, the British Bankers Association from Swiss bank, Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Lloyds Bank, the Dutch cooperative bank, Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, Japan agriculture, forestry, the central treasury, the Royal Bank of Scotland, WestLB, the French bank Societe Generale and other 16 banks to collect dollars to Swiss francs and ten from the monetary cost of borrowing, LIBOR for the period from overnight to one year, then be included in tables, excluding the highest and lowest part of the draw, on average, the day LIBOR is determined, then sent around the world exchange. Interest rate between banks to provide all-weather are changing, and the LIBOR was fixed within 24 hours. In general, the instantaneous interest rate and LIBOR rate differences are very small, especially in a short time. The last two years, I specialize in monitoring securities transactions, such knowledge will commit insider trading is only for beginners. Whenever the investment bank did people know, the investment bank employees, and even their families, all of their securities trading account can only be set up in their own house, and always monitored by regulators, not just a business transaction with your company or to do business with securities regulators in the trading department must first declare before the received preclearance (prior approval) before they can trade stocks, or is insider trading. Ranging from fines to be cut, while in jail. To avoid trouble, I work all these years in investment banking, securities trading closed all accounts. Buffett is not a saint lose credit, and perhaps this is just the first SEC found that cockroaches. Also, the bad behavior continues for a very long time.
